2022 Fantasy Football: Detroit Lions Team Outlook

Detroit Lions Fantasy Football Outlook Sleeper: QB Jared Goff I know, I know, no one wants to draft Jared Goff in the year 2022. But for 2-QB and Superflex leagues, every starting quarterback needs to be considered, and Goff is being overlooked. His current ADP is QB25, despite the fact that he finished as QB22 in PPG last year while being surrounded by perhaps the least talent of any QB in the league thanks to a combination of injuries and, well, playing on the 2021 Lions. To put into perspective how bad the Lions’ receiving options were last year, Kalif Raymond was third on their team in receiving yards. When you go to Kalif Raymond ’s Pro Football Reference page, the first stat block that shows up is “Kick and Punt Returns”. In his second year in Detroit, with new weapons in DJ Chark and Jameson Williams , and hopefully more health from T.J. Hockenson and D’Andre Swift , there’s no reason to think Goff can’t improve on his 2021 numbers. And while he’s never going to be a top-five scoring QB, Goff has proven to have some fantasy upside, finishing as a QB1 in both 2017 and 2018. Don’t be shocked if Goff and the Lions offense take a step forward, allowing the 27-year-old to finish as a solid QB2 and provide real fantasy value in 2-QB formats.

Bust: WR Amon-Ra St. Brown You can’t talk about the Lions fantasy football outlook for 2022 without answering one of the most debated questions of the offseason: Is Amon-Ra St. Brown for real, or is he just another mediocre WR that became fantasy fool’s gold thanks to a stretch of production with no real competition on the roster? The real answer, as it usually does, likely lies somewhere in between, but I fear more regression is coming for the “Sun God” than many expect. While no one is arguing that St. Brown will be as productive as he was down the stretch last year (he was the WR2 behind only Cooper Kupp from Week 13 onwards), his ADP still has him valued as a low-end WR2. That’s a stretch for a fourth-round pick that has only performed when facing absolutely no competition for targets. Week 13, the beginning of the rise of the Sun God, also happens to be the week in which T.J. Hockenson broke his hand, leaving St. Brown alone in easily the weakest receiving room in the league. New signing DJ Chark , a solid but unextraordinary player, would easily have been the Lions best WR alongside St. Brown last year. Rookie first-rounder Jameson Williams is a class above that. The addition of these two WRs plus the return to health of Hockenson and D’Andre Swift has St. Brown set up as an obvious candidate to see his volume dramatically decrease — and fantasy production regress accordingly.

Rookie to Watch: WR Jameson Williams Last year, a rookie WR on the Lions made a huge fantasy impact down the stretch, winning plenty of people lots of money. There’s a real chance we see that again this year with Jameson Williams , the 12th overall pick out of Alabama. While he was the fourth WR off the board on draft night, Williams may actually be the most talented of any rookie pass-catcher. A torn ACL in the CFB Championship Game dropped him down draft boards, which may also affect his availability for Week 1 of his first NFL season. The importance of rookie training camp cannot be overstated, meaning Williams may get off to a slow start, but he is simply too talented to not make an impact eventually. Try to draft Williams late and hold him for the second half of the season, or even scoop him off waivers in shallow leagues with impatient managers. It could pay off big-time.

High Risk/High Upside Pick: RB D’Andre Swift In fantasy football, there’s really only two things that matter: volume and efficiency. When I say D’Andre Swift is a regression candidate, I’m talking purely about the second of these. In 2021, among RBs with at least 50 carries, sophomore Swift had easily the most yards created per touch at 4.08. That’s an absurd number, nearly a quarter yard higher than the next back, a huge amount when extrapolated over 150+ touches a year. Since entering the league, Swift is also seventh in fantasy points per touch. The only names ahead of him are pass-catching specialists ( Nyheim Hines and J.D. McKissic ), elite fantasy RBs ( Austin Ekeler , Alvin Kamara , Christian McCaffrey ) and someone who gets to play with Lamar Jackson ( J.K. Dobbins ). This elite per-touch efficiency has many analysts excited about Swift’s fantasy potential in 2022. Efficiency plus his work in the receiving game (fourth among RBs with 62 receptions last year despite missing four games), is what allowed the Georgia product to be a top-12 running back in PPR points per game last year, despite seeing much less volume than other top backs. While the other 11 top-12 PPG RBs averaged 15.7 carries a game, with Leonard Fournette and Austin Ekeler setting the low bar at 12.9. Swift on the other hand produced RB1 numbers on just 11.6 carries per game. If Swift’s third year sees him increase his carry total to go along with his receiving work, watch out. His per-touch efficiency puts his ceiling among the league’s highest. Unfortunately, this is where the regression comes in: As a general rule, efficiency decreases as volume increases. If, as many are predicting, Swift’s volume increases in 2022, his outlier-level efficiency in some metrics is almost bound to regress. This is especially true because many of his per-touch metrics are skewed due to the high percentage of his touches that are receptions rather than carries. The key question is whether Swift’s volume will increase enough to outweigh that regression in efficiency. If he sees a solid volume increase and only a small-to-medium efficiency decrease, which is certainly a possible outcome, Swift’s current RB7 ADP could be a bargain by season’s end. If you’re not confident in that outcome (where I land myself), you might consider instead rolling the dice on RBs being drafted after him who have proven they can maintain both the volume and efficiency to produce top-five production like Aaron Jones , Joe Mixon , or Saquon Barkley .

Handcuff to Know: RB Jamaal Williams Did you know that Jamaal Williams actually led the Lions in carries last year, despite missing four weeks, the same amount as D’Andre Swift? He also technically started every game but two in which both backs were healthy. Unfortunately for Williams, taking the majority of carries for one of the league's worst teams while not scoring many touchdowns or catching many passes is not exactly a fantasy-friendly role. Outside of a Week 1 explosion in which he put up 25 points, Williams never cracked 15 PPR points in 2021. In the two weeks he played without Swift, Williams saw 17 and 19 carries, but unfortunately did not inherit Swift’s valuable receiving work, actually seeing less targets than with Swift healthy. Regardless, an above-average offensive line and RB1 volume has turned much worse backs than Williams into productive fantasy options. Given that Swift has missed games in each of his first two NFL seasons, Williams belongs on the fantasy radar as the de facto next man up in Detroit.

Bold Prediction: The Lions more than double last year's win total. This isn't as bold as it would be for most teams, given that the Lions only managed to win three games last year. But their win total is set by most sportsbooks at 6.5, and I see them reaching at least seven wins this year (hint hint). After starting 0-10-1, the Lions won three of their last six games, although one of the three did come against a Packers team with nothing to play for in Week 18. Heading into 2022 and year two under Head Coach Dan Campbell, they play the fifth-easiest schedule in the league and should be able to take advantage. Adding two elite talents at arguably their two biggest positions of need in Aidan Hutchinson and Jameson Williams should help massively, and Jared Goff is not as bad as his current reputation. Watch out for everyone’s favorite lovable losers from 2021 to be doing a lot more winning this season.

2022 Fantasy Football: Detroit Lions Team Outlook

Detroit Lions Fantasy Football Outlook

Sleeper: QB Jared Goff

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