Sleeper NFL Over/Under Picks: Conference Championships
The Sleeper Over/Under contests continue through the Conference Championships, and Ted has the 5 best picks for Sunday’s games.
Championship Games Sleeper O/U Picks
We have been on fire in the playoffs, with nine out of 10 picks hitting so far. We have a solid chance to stay hot for the Championship Games, as Sleeper has been nice enough to give us another free square. The last time we had a free square, we went a perfect 5/5 for 20x, let’s do it again this week!
New for this season, the Sleeper fantasy football app has added an Over/Under prop game that allows you to compete against your friends in a league while also making yourself some money! Each week I am going to be sharing some of my favorite lines available on the app. If you agree with any of my picks, hop onto the Sleeper app on your mobile phone and join the Dr. Roto group at Sleeper.com/DOC and get involved. If you don’t agree with my picks … hop onto the Sleeper app on your mobile phone, join the Dr. Roto group at Sleeper.com/DOC, and try to beat me! If you join our group, Sleeper will automatically match your first deposit up to $100!
Jalen Hurts OVER 0.5 Completions
Here’s the free square for this week. A word of warning: Sleeper only allows one entry (up to $20) involving this line, so make sure you pick your favorite prop(s) to pair it with.
Samaje Perine OVER 37.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
We rolled with Samaje last week, and he rewarded us, finishing with 64 all-purpose yards. His line has been bumped up 10 full yards as a result, but I still like the over. Everything I liked about this line last week held true against the Bills: Perine saw nearly 50% of snaps, a handful of touches both on the ground and through the air, and the Bills’ run defense was outmatched from start to finish. The Chiefs aren’t much better against the run, and allowed the most receptions and fourth-most receiving yards to RBs during the season. Perine should get it done again this week.
Evan McPherson OVER 2.5 Extra Points Made
Can you tell I like the Bengals in this one? While I’m not a big believer in the whole “having their number” argument, Joe Burrow’s Bengals are undefeated against the Chiefs, and McPherson kicked at least three extra points in two out of three. Meanwhile, the Chiefs' defense allowed opponents to score a TD once they reached the red zone at the second-highest rate in the league this season. With an implied total of 24.25 (although Vegas has been all over the place on this one as news about Patrick Mahomes’s ankle comes out), Cincinnati should be scoring at least three touchdowns this week, and relying on McPherson to make them count for seven.
Kadarius Toney OVER 3.5 Receptions
Against the Jaguars last week, Toney played just 29% of snaps and ran just 12 routes … but he was still targeted six times, catching five for 37 yards. Clearly, Andy Reid is scheming to get Toney the ball when he is on the field, even if that isn’t for a full-time role. With Mahomes certain to be limited in his mobility, I expect an extra-heavy dose of quick passes to Toney to let him do his thing in open space.
Kenneth Gainwell UNDER 23.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
Gainwell absolutely blew this line out of the water last week, finishing with 112 rushing yards on 12 carries and nine receiving yards on one reception. But only 31 of those yards came prior to the fourth quarter, at which point the game was already essentially over. In 2022, counting that playoff rout of the Giants, Gainwell has missed this line more often (10 times) than he has hit (eight). In what should be a more-contested game against the 49ers, not to mention a matchup with a much, much, much tougher defense, Gainwell should come back to earth.