Dynasty Fantasy Football Stock Watch: Top 5 Fallers
Ted takes a look at the five fantasy football players who have taken the hardest hits to their Dynasty value recently.
Last week, I looked at the biggest risers in Dynasty value, so it seems only fitting to follow up this week with the biggest fallers. Just like last week, we will be getting our list of the biggest movers from FantasyCalc (check out last week's article for an explanation of how their values are calculated). Because we are looking at fallers, there will be some buy-low opportunities here … and some players to trade now before it's too late and you're left holding the bag. Let's get into it!
Dynasty Fantasy Football Fallers
1. QB Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Don't take this the wrong way. Mahomes is still the very top Superflex Dynasty player according to FantasyCalc, and this ranking is more a reflection of his massive total value than any huge shift in his relative value. Still, the reigning Super Bowl MVP has seen his estimated value fall by around 10% over the last 30 days, so this is substantial no matter how you slice it. The question of why Mahomes has fallen is tough to answer – there is certainly no recent news to point to that indicates anything other than more success and a gold jacket in his future. However, in looking at recent trades (which FantasyCalc uses to calculate its values), we can make a guess. Nearly every trade for Mahomes involves either another young stud QB (Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, etc.) or multiple first-round picks. With that in mind, I think this “fall” for Mahomes is more a reflection of rookie fever and continued production from other young stars than any change in his own profile. With that in mind, I don't have a particularly strong take on this change. I will be sending offers to the Mahomes manager in my leagues on the off-chance this fall does reflect a buying opportunity, and I wouldn't trade him for anything less than another top-tier Dynasty QB with multiple assets on top.
2. QB C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
Stroud landing on this list represents a trend that I've seen both in my personal leagues and across the Dynasty sphere: With a highly productive college career, prototypical size and traits, near-universal praise from scouts, and second-overall draft capital, Stroud should be a highly coveted asset … but almost no one is excited to have him on their team. Where he was originally fighting Bryce Young to be the second overall pick in rookie drafts after Bijan Robinson, Stroud is now the consensus third quarterback off the board after Young and Anthony Richardson, and even sees himself slipping as low as sixth overall after Jahmyr Gibbs and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. However, many of the most-cited reasons for being low on Stroud, from questions about his ability under pressure to a lack of rushing upside, have existed for far longer than the last 30 days. It is possible that the increase in leagues drafting, and therefore trading, rookies, has simply allowed FantasyCalc to catch up to Stroud's true market value. Alternatively, it could be that his landing spot in Houston, a historically unsuccessful franchise with a first-time defensive head coach and not much to boast about in terms of weapons, is the true culprit for Stroud's fall. But situations change quickly, and Stroud's profile has just as many green flags as red, so this feels like a buy-low opportunity on a player who could immediately skyrocket in value with a productive rookie season. For this reason, I will likely end up with a few shares of the Ohio State product … but I must admit, I won't be very excited about it.
3. RB Kenneth Walker, Seattle Seahawks
This one is straightforward. Walker, a 2021 second-rounder who finished his rookie season with three straight 100-yard games, saw his Dynasty value take a huge hit when the Seahawks took another second-round RB in UCLA's Zach Charbonnet. He had been ranked as high as the Dynasty RB2, but Walker is now the RB9 … and I don't think he's done falling. I've already discussed how Charbonnet's arrival may be even worse than it appears for Walker's production, and the two will be tied together for at least three years, an eternity in terms of NFL RB careers. Even with his value at an all-time low, I would be looking to move Walker in Dynasty leagues … that all-time low can still get much lower.
4. WR Kayshon Boutte, New England Patriots
Boutte is another unsurprising name on this list. Following a stellar sophomore season at LSU, he was considered one of the top WR prospects in the 2023 class, but he has seen his stock plummet ever since. Thanks to a combination of injuries, sub-par production, an underwhelming combine, and off-the-field drama, Boutte, once a potential first-rounder, eventually fell all the way to the sixth round of the NFL Draft. His Dynasty stock has fallen accordingly, and he is now going in the late third round of rookie drafts … and I don't hate that price. Don't get me wrong, the most likely outcome is that Boutte's downward trend continues and he, like most sixth-round draft picks, never makes an impact in the league. But if you're going to take a gamble on a late-round selection from the NFL Draft, make it one who fell because of non-talent reasons, and Boutte has plenty of those. He has more upside than other late third-round picks, and we will likely know sooner rather than later whether it is going to come through, meaning he won't become a dreaded roster-clogger.
5. WR Justyn Ross, Kansas City Chiefs
In many ways, Justyn Ross is similar to Boutte. He also showcased extreme potential in college, putting up 1,000 yards as an 18-year-old freshman at Clemson and immediately earning hype as a potential first-round WR. However, he would eventually miss an entire season thanks to a congenital fusion in his spine, an issue that also led to him falling completely out of the NFL Draft. He was signed by the Chiefs prior to the 2022 season, but required foot surgery that cost him his entire rookie year. With all that said, I can't imagine what has happened to cause his value to drop by over 60% in the last 30 days. This must just be another case of increased trade volume causing FantasyCalc to catch up to the market's true opinion. Following this fall, I think Ross is undervalued as the 304th overall asset in Dynasty. That ranking means he is likely on waivers in many leagues, and that should not be the case. Again, the most likely outcome may be that Ross never sees an NFL field, but he has upside that most players in that range do not. I would much rather take a shot on Ross than a player like David Bell, who is just as buried on his depth chart but has never flashed truly elite talent … and being tied to Patrick Mahomes, who thinks you have talent “through the roof," can't hurt either.