Tips and Tricks for TNF on Winview Week 6
WinView is a fresh new way to enjoy NFL Football. Ted Chmyz breaks down his favorite prop plays for Thursday Night Football between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Philadelphia Eagles.
I hope you followed my advice last Thursday, as I nailed eight of ten props. But never fear if you missed out, as we’ve got another great matchup this week. The reigning Super Bowl champion Buccs are taking on the Eagles, in what should be an exciting game. Here are my picks for each of WinView’s pregame props:
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Best Thursday Night Football Pregame Prop Picks
Prediction 1: Who wins the game? — TB x1.6 or PHI x3.9
I wish I had some exciting reason to get cute here, but I think we have to stick to chalk on this one. Tampa Bay’s roster is loaded from top to bottom, and they’ve got the GOAT at QB. The Eagles have looked good at times, but they’re no match for the reigning champs.
Prediction 2: Both teams combine to score six or more TDs — YES x2.7 or No x2.3
Tampa Bay is currently leading the league in touchdowns per game, averaging an obscene 4.2. I see them scoring early and often, and the Eagles managing a few of their own while playing catch-up.
Prediction 3: The game is decided by eight points or fewer — YES x4 or No x1.8
While I do think Tampa Bay will win comfortably, I think the Eagles have enough of a chance of keeping it close to make it worth shooting for this x4 multiplier. Tampa Bay did blow out the Tua Tagovailoa-less Dolphins and hapless Falcons, but the score finished close in their two other wins. And after all, any given Sunday (or in this case, Thursday).
Prediction 4: Jalen Hurts records the longest completed pass in the game — Yes x3 or NO x2
Although it’s a bit chalk again, I think the obvious No here is too hard to pass up. Tom Brady’s average depth of target since moving to Tampa Bay has been 9.1, 9.2 this season. Hurts on the other hand is averaging just 7.5 intended yards per attempt. Brady is throwing to Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski, all of whom are liable to break a big play at any time. However, all it takes is one play, and Jalen Reagor and DeVonta Smith are both capable deep threats — not to mention Quez Watkins, who has a 91-yard catch already this season. If you’re really looking to differentiate yourself in a global-style game, this could be a place to do it.
Prediction 5: Tom Brady records 315 or more total passing yards — Yes x2.8 or NO x2.1
This is an interesting one. On the one hand, Brady has hit this mark in three out of five games this season and is averaging 353 yards per game, almost 40 more. On the other hand, Vegas is setting lines for this game at 295 or 296 yards. Plus, the Eagles have yet to allow a 300-yard, or even 275-yard passer, despite facing Dak Prescott and Patrick Mahomes. The main reason why? Their suspect run defense, which I think the Bucs will look to exploit after getting up early. They’ll be able to lean on Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones, capping Brady’s yardage upside in the process.
Prediction 6: Ronald Jones or Kenneth Gainwell score a TD — Yes x3.8 or NO x1.9
Ronald Jones is an afterthought in this Tampa Bay offense, consistently playing less than a quarter of snaps and seeing just a handful of touches. He may get a bit more run against the aforementioned struggling Eagles run defense, but he’s still unlikely to hit paydirt. For his part, Gainwell has looked surprisingly good as a runner and receiver out of the backfield and actually has four touchdowns on the year. However, the rookie out of Memphis isn’t exactly a touch-hog either. TDs are a bit flukey, but volume is the best predictor, so I’ll take the No for these two low-usage backs.
Prediction 7: Jake Elliot makes more FGs than Ryan Succop — Yes x2.6 or NO x2.3
I like the No here just because I think the Eagles will be down enough throughout this game to make settling for field goals less of an option. Plus, the way the question is worded means a tie pays out for Succop/No. Both kickers have seven made attempts on the year, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see them end the contest with one or two makes apiece. Most importantly, when in doubt, back the kicker with the better offense. In this case, that’s clearly Succop.
Prediction 8: Either team records a defensive or special teams TD — YES x5 or No x1.5
What can I say about this one? It probably won’t happen, but gosh that x5 multiplier will feel great if it does. So far this season, these teams have combined for just three of these scores, two of which were Mike Edwards pick-sixes in one quarter against the Falcons. Smart money says No. My heart says Yes, and I’m calling a Jalen Reagor return to provide the goods. If you’re going Yes as well, this could be a good place to spend your One Shot.
Prediction 9: Zach Ertz and Antonio Brown combine to record 11 or more receptions — Yes x2.8 or NO x2.4
Ertz has just 14 receptions on the season, although his targets are trending up in the past few weeks. AB on the other hand has averaged five catches a game, but only really sees the field in three-WR sets. With Rob Gronkowski trending towards playing and likely an early lead, his opportunities may be hard to come by. Dallas Goedert potentially missing this game on the COVID-19 list is the only reason I’d even consider the Yes here. If he’s sidelined Ertz should see more targets, but even still 11 is a high ask for these two players, neither of whom is one of their team’s top two targets.
Prediction 10: Any player records two or more full sacks in the game — Yes x4 or NO x1.7
I just don’t see this one happening. The Tampa Bay defensive line is a great unit, but their dominance is more on the run-stuffing side than in rushing the passer. The team leader in sacks is Shaquil Barrett at just 3.5, with only two other Buccs at two total on the season. On the Eagles side, Javon Hargrave has started the year hot and does have two multi-sack performances to his name already. But Brady is historically great — like 11th best all-time great — at avoiding sacks, working both before and after the snap to keep himself off the turf. Take the No here and hope Thursday-night sloppiness doesn’t get to these offensive lines.