High-Stakes Fantasy Football ADP Analysis: Round 1
Trevor breaks down the current NFFC ADPs for Round 1.
NFFC Fantasy Football ADP Evaluations Round 1
1. WR Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings
The clear consensus number one pick, and for good reason. The Vikings should be involved in high-scoring games in which they will be airing it out. A season of 120 catches and 1,700 receiving yards seems likely for Jefferson. I would love to see him increase his touchdowns into double-digits, as he only had eight last year. Having the number one pick here also allows you to get two star-quality players in Rounds 2 and 3, plus two more great-value players in Rounds 4 and 5. This is the year where I think the number one pick has a huge advantage.
2. WR Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals
Chase is good, really good, and it would not surprise me if he beat out Jefferson for the most receiver fantasy points. He has a top-five quarterback and is the go-to receiver on a high-powered offense. I have seen many drafts where he has gone second overall, and I think that is where I would take him, waiting on running backs until Rounds 2 or 3.
3. RB Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons
It didn’t take long for Robinson to shoot up the fantasy draft boards. I’m really shocked that he has climbed this far. I know he’s a generational talent, but I can’t put him ahead of other more proven backs. Not to say he can’t be the best back in fantasy football, but to expect that from a rookie is a little too far-fetched for me.
4. RB Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers
The best fantasy running back, bar none. McCaffrey is the best pass catcher and can score from anywhere on the field. He should get 1,600 all-purpose yards and double-digit touchdowns. I wouldn’t blame anyone for taking him number one overall. The one negative is that even though he was healthy last season, there is always an inkling of injury in the back of my mind when I think of CMC.
5. RB Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
I think taking Taylor anywhere in the first round is a little too high, and now he has shot up to fifth overall. I don’t think the Colts' offensive line is anything special, and the offense is going to struggle to score with either Anthony Richardson or Gardner Minshew under center.
6. WR Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins
Hill produces year in and year out, and he should be a safe pick at sixth overall, His numbers were hampered a bit last year with the injuries to QB Tua Tagovailoa, but the Dolphins' addition of QB Mike White eases my mind a bit that someone can get Hill the football in case Tua suffers another injury. He is a nice solid floor, high-ceiling pick here.
7. WR CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys
Here is another player who has shot up the draft boards. Lamb is a great talent, and if you are picking seventh overall and really love him, then you can go for the safe production. For me, I think this is a bit too early, there are other receivers I would take before Lamb that I will mention later. I like Lamb later in the first or early in the second round.
8. TE Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs
The best tight end in football for several years. He can give your fantasy team a huge advantage at the position. Saying that, I can’t take a tight end this high, as I think we can find good value at the position later. Plus, he is going to be 35 in October. I am not saying he is going to fall off, but his age is a slight little red flag. If you love Kelce and decide to take him this early, then you had better have a great game plan for the rest of your draft. I will show you how this can be done as we go further into the ADPs.
9. RB Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers
It is starting to get more interesting. There is no doubting how valuable Ekeler is to a fantasy team. He catches a ton of passes and gets into the end zone. I have no problems taking Ekeler here, even though he was seeking a trade from the Chargers this offseason. Now that he is likely staying in LA, we can pencil Ekeler in for another solid season.
10. QB Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
You will definitely get great production from Mahomes, but I can’t take a quarterback this early. There are still many good quality running backs and receivers on the board at this point, and there are plenty of good mid-round quarterbacks to target.
11. WR Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills
Receivers are definitely being pushed up the draft boards while the running backs are dropping. Diggs is solid, safe draft pick at 11, but I’m not taking him ahead of WR Davante Adams. I don’t know if I am showing bias against Diggs because I am a Vikings fan, but there is just something that seems a little off to me about how last season ended in Buffalo. I am going to fade Diggs here, and would prefer to take him at the beginning of the second round.
12. WR Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams
Kupp has slid over the past few weeks from sixth or seven overall down to 12. I think 12 is more appropriate, considering he is coming off an injury and so is his quarterback. If Matthew Stafford were guaranteed to stay healthy the entire season, then I would think this is a great pick. I just don’t think Stafford will make it through, and that may limit Kupp’s ceiling.