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Week 8 Monkey Knife Fight Prop Games

Touchdown Dance (Early Slate)

Joe Mixon, Stefon Diggs, and Deebo Samuel

● Mixon: The Jets are the only team in the NFL to have allowed double-digit rushing scores to running backs this season, and overall, the Jets are one of just three teams to have allowed 10 or more total touchdowns to running backs in 2021. Running backs against New York have been tried-and-true of late, and Mixon should be the next guy to exploit that.
● Diggs: The Dolphins are one of just four teams to have allowed seven scores to receivers over the last four weeks. Furthermore, the Miami defense has been downright awful, especially through the air, in recent weeks. Diggs has scored in three of his four career games against the Dolphins, and in the three most recent matchups between Buffalo and Miami, the Bills have averaged 40.7 points per game. Diggs will be involved heavily in this one.
● Samuel: Mike Evans just beat the Bears for multiple scores, so why can’t Samuel? The team manufactures touches for him like it is going out of business, and Samuel has at least eight targets in every game this season. No team is worse than Chicago in terms of covering the opposing team’s top wide receiver, and of late, they haven’t been able to really stop any receiver. Samuel is scoring this week, at least once.

More or Less (PHI @ DET)

Jalen Hurts 23.5 Fantasy Points (MORE) and D’Andre Swift 20.5 Fantasy Points (MORE)

● Hurts: This seems like a lofty number for a guy who has more or less struggled mightily in real life. However, Hurts has been excellent for fantasy purposes. The Lions have allowed just under 20 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season, but Hurts is averaging just over 24 fantasy points per game this season, and he has nine total touchdowns (5 passing, 4 rushing) over the last four weeks.
● Swift: I really, really like Swift this week, even if this line seems a tad bit high. Swift has the fourth-most fantasy points over the last four weeks, averaging 19.4 fantasy points per game in that span. On the other hand, the Eagles are getting crushed by running backs of late, allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to the position over the last four weeks. Let’s get crazy and go for more than 20.5 with Swift this week.

Rapid Fire – Fantasy Points (Early Slate)

Josh Allen and Cooper Kupp

Josh Allen vs Jalen Hurts (+2.5 fantasy points): 

Allen gets a bye week and then gets to play the Dolphins at home (aka “another bye week”). The Dolphins rank 28th in giving up fantasy points to quarterbacks. So far, this season, Allen has averaged 32.15 fantasy points per game and is 100% consistent when playing at home versus a bad defense.  

Hurts is also playing against a bad defense but he’s playing on the road. The Lions won’t be able to stop him. So far this season Hurts has averaged 28.60 fantasy points per game and is 100% consistent. If you add the bonus 2.5 fantasy points to his average that totals 31.10 fantasy points, which leaves about a point short of Allen. So, take Allen as the winner.

Cooper Kupp vs Matthew Stafford (+1.5 fantasy points):

This is a fun one this week as the wide receiver is battling his own quarterback. They play the Lions on the road. The Lions are an average defense versus wide receivers. However, Kupp on the road this year is averaging 29.00 fantasy points per game and 34 fantasy when playing an average defense. Since Stafford is getting all of his points from throwing to Kupp, this one is a no-brainer

As much as Stafford has a great matchup versus the Lions who rank 23rd in giving up fantasy points to quarterbacks, let’s use a little algebra here and realize that EVERY pass that Stafford completes to Kupp for 20 yards, it is a 3 to 1 ratio for Kupp. So, unless Kupp gets hurt in the first quarter, Stafford really doesn’t have much of a chance here.

More or Less (JAX @ SEA):

James Robinson 16.5 Fantasy Points (LESS) and DK Metcalf 16.5 Fantasy Points (LESS)

● Robinson: Both of these players have a matchup versus a bad defense. Robinson has been 100% consistent versus bad defenses over the past two years, but he’s only averaging 12.10 fantasy points per game. So, I’m going to take the LESS for him in this game.
● Metcalf: Metcalf showed you on Monday, that he can score 16.5 fantasy points in ONE PLAY. However, Geno Smith struggled throughout that game other than that play. The Saints were ranked as a good defense and the Jaguars are not good. Metcalf when playing at home versus a bad defense has been 100% consistent and averaged 16.28 fantasy points per game. With Pete Carroll’s focus always being on running the football, I’m going to take the LESS for Metcalf as well.