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Best Picks for Week 14 Monkey Knife Fight Prop Games

Touchdown Dance (Early Slate)

Chuba Hubbard, Tyler Lockett and Alvin Kamara

  • Hubbard: My biggest fear with Hubbard not finding the end zone is that Cam Newton steals touches near the end zone like he’s known to do. With no Christian McCaffrey, we’ve seen Hubbard be a workhorse before, and that should be quite fruitful against an Atlanta defense that ranks 21st in DVOA against the run and 22nd on passes to running backs, per Football Outsiders. The running back position has accounted for 12 touchdowns this season against the Falcons.
  • Lockett: You can beat Houston through the air. Don’t be fooled by the sizable number of interceptions. The Texans have allowed the tenth-most receiving yards to wideouts this year, not to mention 10 touchdowns. Houston has allowed nine passes of 40 or more yards this season, and Lockett and Russell Wilson should hook up for a long score at least once in this one.
  • Kamara: Kamara returned to practice earlier in the week and should be good to go for a matchup against a soft New York run defense. Even if Kamara has a slightly decreased workload in his return to game action, he should warrant enough work to find the end zone. The Jets have allowed 4.5 yards per carry this season and they are one of just five teams to have allowed double-digit runs of 20+ yards this season. Running backs specifically have 22 touchdowns against the Jets this season, which, of course, is the most in the NFL.

More or Less (ATL @ CAR):

DJ Moore 67.5 Receiving Yards (MORE) and Russell Gage 50.5 Receiving Yards (MORE)

  • Moore: It’s hard to trust a passing attack led by Cam Newton, but I’ll trust that Moore gets loose against a bad Atlanta defense. The Falcons rank 29th in DVOA against the pass and 28th against the opponent’s WR1, per Football Outsiders. Moore had 100+ yards in his last outing, and has at least 80 receiving yards in three of his last five games against Atlanta.
  • Gage: Gage has 192 receiving yards over the last two weeks but, more importantly, he is averaging nine targets per game over the last three weeks. That type of volume will help him surpass 50 receiving yards against a Carolina defense that has some talent in the secondary. Given Gage’s increased role of late, this is too low of a line, even in a less-than-ideal matchup.

More or Less (LV @ KC): 

Patrick Mahomes - 23.5 Fantasy Points (MORE) and Derek Carr – 18.5 Fantasy Points (MORE)

  • Mahomes: The Raiders rank 23rd in giving up fantasy points to quarterbacks so far this season. Not only does Mahomes do well at home versus bad defenses by averaging 27.97 fantasy points per game and being 100% consistent in such games, but he destroys the Raiders in particular every time they play! In Week 10, he put up five touchdowns and had 40.30 fantasy points. I believe the MORE is a given here.
  • Carr: Derek certainly doesn’t put up Mahomes-type numbers in these matchups, but he does score more than 18.5 fantasy points most of the time. In fact, Carr on the road versus a bad defense averages 20.78 fantasy points per game. In Week 10 versus the Chiefs Carr scored 21.85 fantasy points. That’s not great, but it's good, so I will go MORE with Carr.

More or Less (BUF @ TB): 

Josh Allen – 24.5 Fantasy Points (MORE) and Tom Brady - 22.5 Fantasy Points (LESS)

  • Allen: Allen has not been doing well from a fantasy perspective recently. Bad weather and tough defenses have caused him to struggle. However, this week should be totally different. He goes to Tampa and takes on the Bucs, where nice weather and a bad defense exist. Allen has averaged 33.92 fantasy points per game when playing on the road versus a bad defense and has been 100% consistent in those games. I am taking the MORE here.
  • Brady: Brady has a tougher matchup in the Bills as they rank #1 in giving up the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. Tom has only averaged 19.30 fantasy points per game and has been only 33% consistent in those matchups since joining the Bucs. I’m going to take the LESS on him.